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SMART Letter #14 - November 30, 1998
For Friends and Enemies of the Stupid Network
Copyright 1998 by David S. Isenberg
isen@isen.com -- http://www.isen.com/ -- 1-888-isen-com
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!@#$%^&*()!@#$%^&*()!@#$%^&*()!@#$%^&*()!@#$%^&*()!@#$%^&*()
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Spend AN AFTERNOON WITH GEORGE GILDER, December 10, 4-7 PM.
Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken NJ.
To attend see http://www.isen.com/njtt/
email robin@isen.com
or call 908-389-0177
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CONTENTS:
+ Lead essay: Y2K Letters to Leaders (Don't just read this, use it!)
+ Updated Quotes Page -- Newly collected quotes on
+ Technological Change
+ Predicting the Future
+ The Year 2000 Problem
+ Strategy
+ Corporate Culture
+ The Social Basis of Learning
+ Conferences on My Calendar, Copyright Notice, Administrivia
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Y2K LETTERS TO LEADERS
The Year 2000 is rapidly approaching, but our knowledge of
potential Y2K problems is lagging.
Will the electric grid work? We don't know.
Will our hospitals function? We don't know.
Will the phone system go down? We don't know.
Will there be enough food and water? We don't know.
Gasoline? Emergency services? We do not know.
Will industrial accidents in refineries and chemical
processing plants increase? We don't know.
Might there even be an accidental nuclear weapon
launch? God we hope not.
Weighing the consequences, I believe that these are
reasonable, pragmatic questions that must be addressed,
especially given our lack of knowledge.
About one year ago, a high-ranking US government official
told me that US weapons systems definitely were going to be
Y2K ready. In late 1997 he asserted that there was a
spare-no-expenses push to fix them, that the best personnel
were assigned, that the job would be done, and done right.
But over the last day or two, stories in USA Today, the NY
Times and the Wall Street Journal (11/27) report that
weapons management systems that the US Department of Defense
thought were Year 2000 compliant weren't. Apparently specialists
signed Y2K compliance papers without testing the systems.
The "Human Spirit" scenario occurs in the context of massive
technological breakdown, yet it is a positive vision (see
http://www.isen.com/archives/980515.html/). If our leaders
provide leadership, this will act towards preserving social
institutions even as the infrastructure breaks. How can we
sensitize our leaders to the possibility that the
information that "their people" have been providing may not
contain the whole story? And inspire them towards leadership
at the same time?
One of my advisors had the idea of a SMART letter writing
campaign. The letter below, based on the work of Tom Atlee
and Gordon Davidson (and used with their permission)
provides a suggested template. Perhaps we might start with
four letters -- to our mayor or city manager, to our chief of
police, to our physician, and to our clergy . . . or ???
Please let me know your ideas on the below -- David I
--------------------- cut here ------------------------
Dear ---------
As we get closer to the Year 2000, I am hearing a lot about
the Year 2000 Problem -- about how this might have serious
consequences for the economy, for the infrastructure, and
maybe even for civil order. On the other hand, I am seeing
very little national or local leadership. I have a lot
of questions about how government and civic leaders are
responding to the Year 2000 Problem. Here are some of my
questions and concerns:
HOW BAD WILL THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM BE? The Year 2000
Problem may just be a big inconvenience, or it could really
mess up our lives and communities. As an active citizen, I
want to know how the important institutions we depend on
are doing in fixing their computer systems. Companies,
utilities, and government offices seem to be holding back
information. They seem to be giving us PR instead of
really telling us how they are doing. We don't want to
assume that they're really behind and are going to fail in
January 2000, but we do not know what they are hiding, if
anything. Question #1: What would you do to make it easier
for citizens to get real information about how companies,
utilities and governments are doing in their preparations
for Y2K?
HOW CAN WE PREVENT PANIC? Lots of people are getting pretty
scared about what might happen on January 1, 2000, when
some computers and microchips break down. Already there are
signs that some people are heading for the hills, stocking
up on dried food and planning to take all their money out
of the banks. This sort of stuff will probably get worse
during the next year. Question #2: What would you do to
prevent widespread panic and dangerous runs on banks and
stores, without impeding people's ability to prepare for
the Year 2000 Problem?
WILL OUR SMALL BUSINESSES BE PREPARED? Last July President
Clinton cited a survey that showed that of the small
businesses that even know about the Year 2000 Problem,
roughly half intend to do nothing about it. Most of the
jobs in our economy come from small businesses. They make
parts and provide services that are vital to the operations
of big businesses. If lots of small businesses fold, our
economy is done for. Question #3: What would you do to
make sure that the small businesses that we depend upon are
well prepared?
WILL WE HAVE RELIABLE ELECTRICITY? The North American
Electric Reliability Council stated in a September 1998
report that 64% of electrical utilities in the U.S. are
only 30% through their Y2K repairs, and 36% of utilities
have no plan at all. Many people think there is just not
enough time for them to complete this work. It is also
likely that nuclear plants, (which are 20% of our
generating capacity) will have to be shut down because
their safety cannot be guaranteed. If we lose our
electrical grid we will have severe infrastructure and
supply problems. Question #4: What would you do to ensure
that out communities have electricity (or backup systems)
in January, 2000?
WILL THERE BE SOCIAL UNREST? Many people who live in urban
areas are concerned that even if they prepare by storing
food and water, large populations of poor or unprepared
people could lead to widespread social unrest. We could
face severe social disruptions and even violence if basic
services and supplies are unavailable. Proposals have been
made that the federal or state government establish
warehouses of food and supplies in the inner cities to
prevent this scenario. We could use schools for shelters
and involve churches and businesses. There are all sorts
of things we could do. Question #5: What would you do to
help us work together to prepare our whole community for
Y2K? What would you do to ease racial and class
differences during the period of stress we'll probably
experience with Y2K?
WILL THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFER BECAUSE OF Y2K? If computer
failures cause accidents in chemical refineries and other
factories that release toxic or radioactive substances
(which the EPA has publicly expressed concern about) or if
governments and businesses just get too distracted by Y2K
work to pay attention to the environment, the environment
could be hurt pretty badly. Question #6: What are you going
to do to ensure that we don't have toxic leaks or nuclear
accidents because of Y2K? What do you propose to do to
protect the environment from Y2K-related damage?
WILL MEDICAL CARE BE DISRUPTED? A lot of experts are saying
that hospitals are especially threatened by the Year 2000
problem -- that some of their equipment has embedded
microchips that might fail, or that computers might not be
able to do important calculations with patient records.
And the agency that handles Medicare payments is not ready
for the Year 2000. Furthermore, some medicines might
become hard to get. I've heard that 70% of the world's
insulin is produced by one company in Europe. Question #7:
Do you know how our medical institutions are progressing on
their Y2K preparations? What would you do to ensure we
have adequate health care in January 2000?
WILL THE MEDIA BE PART OF THE SOLUTION? The media seems to
be playing games with the Year 2000 problem. One day
they'll say that it isn't a problem, and the next day
they'll publish some scary Y2K survivalist story. And a
lot of good stuff that's going on -- like concerned
citizens getting together to prepare their communities --
never gets reported. The Internet is filled with good
analysis and documentation, but also with wild doomsday
rantings and false reassurances. Question #8: What would
you do to get the media to give us the useful information,
inspirational stories and good guidance we need to get our
communities ready for the Year 2000?
WILL THE INFRASTRUCTURE CRASH? Many people are concerned
that our entire infrastructure could be threatened,
especially if the electrical grid goes down, as the entire
system is completely interdependent, and a failure by
telecommunications could bring down the electrical grid,
all banking, and emergency services. Question #9: What
would you do to ensure we have water, sewage disposal,
waste disposal, basic energy supplies, food, public
security, health care, care for the poor, elderly and
infirm, adequate public transportation, a functioning local
economy, a functioning justice and prison system, increased
self-reliance and resilience as a community?
To close, let me cite General Norman Schwartzkopf:
"Leadership is a potent combination of strategy and
character. But if you must be without one, be without the
strategy." We don't know enough to formulate a strategy.
So I am asking you to lead! Answers to even some of the
questions above would be most helpful.
Sincerely,
--------------------- cut here ------------------------
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UPDATED QUOTES PAGE -- http://www.isen.com/quotes.html
Who has time for Wittgenstein these days, anyway?
Here are some quotations I've added recently:
ON TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
"Dinosaurs were highly successful and lasted a long time.
They never went away. They became smaller, faster, and more
agile, and now we call them birds." Mark Halper in Forbes
ASAP, June 2, 1997.
"In the times of rapid change, learners inherit the Earth,
while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to
deal with a world that no longer exists." Eric Hoffer.
"Who will pave my information super-driveway?" Zigurd
Mednieks in Telerati Newsletter #31, 12 Oct 1998.
"If, while traveling, I send a turn-yourself-off message to
my stove and it replies 'Unable to respond due to fire
wall,' should I send my garden hose a spray-the-house
message?" Steve Cummings, quoted in Journal of the
Hyperlinked Organization, June 4, 1998
http://www.hyperorg.com/
ON PREDICTING THE FUTURE
"The only reliable prediction is that some simple factor
that nobody had envisioned will cause things to turn out
radically different from what is projected." Eric
Springman, quoted in the Journal of the Hyperlinked
Organization (http://www.hyperorg.com/) November 25, 1998.
"Long range planning does not deal with future decisions,
but with the future of present decisions." Peter F.
Drucker.
"Never make forecasts, especially about the future."
Attributed to movie mogul Sam Goldwyn.
ON THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM
"[A rumor] breeds best in a society that is deprived of
factual information. What is read in the newspapers is
reduced to the status of propaganda, whereas what is heard
on the grapevine is elevated to fact.'' Elizabeth Wong,
head of the Malaysian human rights group Suaram, during
1998 Malaysian economic crisis.
"All financial markets are belief systems. We all put money
in a bank and then borrow out ten times as much and feel
safe. Why? Because we believe in each other as a system. I
have never been part of an important business, trade,
transaction, deal, or event that did not have its success
begin and end in faith." Austin Fitts, SMART Person
(AustinAlex@aol.com), July 1998 email.
"In the control room there were three audible alarms
sounding, and many of the 1600 annunciator lights (little
rectangles of plastic with some code numbers and letters on
them) were on or blinking. The operators did not turn off
the main audible alarm because it would cancel some of the
annunciator lights. The computer was beginning to run far
behind schedule; in fact it took some hours before its
message that something might be wrong with the PORV finally
got its chance to be printed. Radiation alarms were coming
on. The control room was filling with experts; later in
the day there were about forty people there. The phones
were ringing constantly, demanding information the
operators did not have." From a description of the Three
Mile Island accident in Normal Accidents: Living with High
Risk Technologies by Charles Perrow (1984, Basic Books, New
York) p. 28.
"Who knows which of today's short-sighted policies will
turn out to be tomorrow's nightmare." Tom Abate, San
Francisco Examiner, December 29, 1996.
ON STRATEGY
"This is not a company adrift, searching for some elusive
silver bullet." Bob Allen, at AT&T shareholders meeting,
May 1997.
"You can't depend on your judgement when your imagination
is out of focus." Mark Twain.
ON CORPORATE CULTURE
"Innovation requires us to systematically identify changes
that have already occurred in a business - in demographics,
in values, in technology or science -- and then to look at
them as opportunities. It also requires something that is
most difficult for existing companies to do: to abandon
rather than defend yesterday." Peter Drucker in Inc
Magazine, March 1996.
"It is a myth that people resist change. People resist
what other people make them do, not what they themselves
choose to do. . . . That's why companies that innovate
successfully year after year seek their people's ideas, let
them initiate new projects and encourage more experiments."
Rosabeth Moss Kanter, in The Vineyard Gazette, sometime
during summer, 1997.
"I don't want yes men around me. I want everyone to tell
the truth, even if it costs them their jobs." Attributed to
movie mogul Sam Goldwyn.
ON THE SOCIAL BASIS OF LEARNING
"The highest bandwidth network of all is found between the
water fountain and the coffee machine." Davenport, T.H.
Think Tank: The Virtual and the Physical, CIO, November 15,
1995
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CONFERENCES ON MY CALENDAR
+ An Afternoon with George Gilder, December 10, 4-7 PM,
Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken NJ. Sponsored by
isen.com, inc., and the Advanced Telecommunications
Institute of Stevens Institute of Technology. Tell your friends,
customers, suppliers, employees, boss, enemies, to be there or b^2
To attend see http://www.isen.com/njtt
email robin@isen.com
or call 908-389-0177
+ Solutions 99! -- Denton TX: Sponsored by University of
North Texas, Feb 9, 1999. Contact Mitch Land .
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COPYRIGHT NOTICE:
Redistribution of this document, or any part of it, is
permitted for non-commercial purposes, provided that
the two lines below are reproduced with it:
Copyright 1998 by David S. Isenberg
isen@isen.com -- http://www.isen.com/ -- 1-888-isen-com
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Date last modified: 5 Dec 98