Monday, January 12, 2004


Aw, shucks, 't weren't nuthin

Phil Schelinski writes:
Special congrats to you on predicting the need for a paradigm shift in circuit based telecommunications in this country. Of course it cost you your job at Bell Labs but opened up a whole new career. Today's Chicago Tribune says, "Verizon announces their rollout plan for a true packet network." SBC follows with their new projection and Nortel stock shoots up! Maybe Tellabs can make a comeback!
Thanks, Phil, but I wouldn't get prematurely optimistic. I am happy to see Verizon and SBC making bold predictions that drive up 'quipment share prices, but I still think that the old guys will not invent the new telecommunications business model. Remember 1993 and the Interactive TV fad? The telcos made lots of big optimistic projections then too. But the "order pizza" TV was not good business, and today voice, even IP voice, is not good business. The telcos have not been making money on data, even DSL, so after voice, what's the business model? And who's the disruptor?

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