Thursday, August 12, 2004
More on Softbank's plan to disrupt Mobile Telecom in Japan
Ben Miller, a Tokyo-based telecom observer for The Yankee Group writes:
Miller goes on to describe Yahoo!BB's pricing:
[Ben Miller points out that the document that I've quoted above are part of an expensive Broadband Markets newsletter.]
Softbank's recent announcement of plans to increase the number of Yahoo! BB brand public-access hot spots . . . to 5,000 by March 2005 [means that it] aims to become the largest hot spot network in Japan overtaking its major competitors - NTT West's 1600 "FLETS Spot" hot spots, NTT East's several hundred "M FLETS" offerings, and NTT Communication's 800 "Hotspot" locations.My brother Daniel points out that J-COM also has an extensive hotspot network under construction. [J-COM founder Frank Seiji Sanda is a friend to both of us.]
Miller goes on to describe Yahoo!BB's pricing:
Yahoo! BB ADSL-VoIP customers can access the hot spots for free if they have the in-home wireless LAN option, or for an additional US$3 per month if they do not. [Non-subscribers pay] US$15 per month. NTT Communications also charges US$15 per month, while BizPortal charges US$10 per week or US$5 per day . . .Miller quotes Masayoshi Son's declaration to disrupt:
[Son says,] "The level of cellphone charges, expensive by international standards, will surely fall if we are allowed in. Japan's broadband telecommunications services became the cheapest and fastest in the world after we began our ADSL business. We are determined to light a fire under the three existing carriers, so they will review their tariffs and services."Here in the U.S., telecom execs have taken to parroting airline execs who say that "prices are driven by my stupidest competitor." Is Son-san stupid? Like a fox.
[Ben Miller points out that the document that I've quoted above are part of an expensive Broadband Markets newsletter.]
Comments:
I appreciate that Son always goes for the jugular. Just as he lowered the floor for broadband, he is doing the same for VoIP.
I know that average cellphone bills regularly top $50 and often $100 for those who are heavy users (young kids, etc.) If he can take even a few percentage points away from DoCoMo/AU/Vodafone each, then I think he will have more than paid for his investment.
What I am really looking forward to is a switch to true flat-rate pricing for all phone services. For instance, AU's new 3G "WIN" platform is the hot new deal because you can get an "all-you-can-eat" 3G data plan for about $40/mo. but that is in addition to your phone minutes, which on average would be about $50. So you're back to $100/mo. for a 3G platform (data and voice.) In reality, the wireless telcos are still charging "by the packet," which is the silliest thing when you consider that 10 Mb/sec. ADSL, 6Mb/sec. cable broadband, and 100 Mb/sec. fiber are all competitively priced.
If Son can provide services that mimic 3G without the tremendous capital outlay of 3G, then he's got another home run.
I know that average cellphone bills regularly top $50 and often $100 for those who are heavy users (young kids, etc.) If he can take even a few percentage points away from DoCoMo/AU/Vodafone each, then I think he will have more than paid for his investment.
What I am really looking forward to is a switch to true flat-rate pricing for all phone services. For instance, AU's new 3G "WIN" platform is the hot new deal because you can get an "all-you-can-eat" 3G data plan for about $40/mo. but that is in addition to your phone minutes, which on average would be about $50. So you're back to $100/mo. for a 3G platform (data and voice.) In reality, the wireless telcos are still charging "by the packet," which is the silliest thing when you consider that 10 Mb/sec. ADSL, 6Mb/sec. cable broadband, and 100 Mb/sec. fiber are all competitively priced.
If Son can provide services that mimic 3G without the tremendous capital outlay of 3G, then he's got another home run.
Japan's fixed line broadband and 3G -> 3.5G wireless advances are largely driven by disruptive innovation. There is more disruption on the horizon. Some of the new 3G entrants on the horizon are discussing to use China's flavor of WCDMA-3G standard - this would create a unified China + Japan mobile communications segment, which if realized would probably be a major disruption of 3G/3.5G markets, since the scale would allow major reductions in handset pricing. It will be difficult to keep lower priced Chinese 3G handsets out of Japan.
More here (the following link allows to download a short free version of our commercial 3G-report in pdf-format):
http://store.eSellerate.net/eurot/3gmobile
Gerhard Fasol
http://fasol.com/
More here (the following link allows to download a short free version of our commercial 3G-report in pdf-format):
http://store.eSellerate.net/eurot/3gmobile
Gerhard Fasol
http://fasol.com/
Japan's fixed line broadband and 3G -> 3.5G wireless advances are largely driven by disruptive innovation. There is more disruption on the horizon. Some of the new 3G entrants on the horizon are discussing to use China's flavor of WCDMA-3G standard - this would create a unified China + Japan mobile communications segment, which if realized would probably be a major disruption of 3G/3.5G markets, since the scale would allow major reductions in handset pricing. It will be difficult to keep lower priced Chinese 3G handsets out of Japan.
More here (the following link allows to download a short free version of our commercial 3G-report in pdf-format):
http://store.eSellerate.net/eurot/3gmobile
Gerhard Fasol
http://fasol.com/
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More here (the following link allows to download a short free version of our commercial 3G-report in pdf-format):
http://store.eSellerate.net/eurot/3gmobile
Gerhard Fasol
http://fasol.com/
