Tuesday, December 28, 2004
Red Herring: A decade behind
Red Herring just published its top ten trends for 2005. Trend #2 was The Death of Distance. Red Herring must not have a sense of smell; Distance is so dead its corpse stinks.
The Death of Distance first appeared in The Economist about a decade ago. In that decade we've seen international telephony prices fall from dollars per minute to Skype-free, while we think nothing, nothing, nothing of accessing a website halfway around the world. Minutes are dead.
Area codes mean nothing. Country codes are fading. Ad hoc addressing is king -- Skype me at david_isenberg, Y!Chat me at the same address.
There are no ahas in the other nine trends either.
#1. The death of magazines. Aha!
The Death of Distance first appeared in The Economist about a decade ago. In that decade we've seen international telephony prices fall from dollars per minute to Skype-free, while we think nothing, nothing, nothing of accessing a website halfway around the world. Minutes are dead.
Area codes mean nothing. Country codes are fading. Ad hoc addressing is king -- Skype me at david_isenberg, Y!Chat me at the same address.
There are no ahas in the other nine trends either.
#1. The death of magazines. Aha!
Comments:
David:
For us to be able to Skype you, your Skype client needs to be activated once in a while :-)
And, with that shiny new Mac, are you accessible on the Mac's native iChat?
I thought "The US takes a 3G thrashing" was nearly as old and dead as the death of distance. Granted there is greater penetration of wireless phones in other countries, and they're further ahead of us in "3G" deployment. In the mention of Korea and Japan, there's no mention (as usual) of the unique demographics of those countries that in part attribute to the high penetration of wireless phones.
In my analysis, the US is leading a more important wireless trend - License-exempt Wireless, of which Wi-Fi is just the tip of the iceberg. We're starting to see the deployment of do-it-yourself wireless telephony, with the combination of wide-area Wi-Fi and Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) in places like college and corporate campuses, a portion of Newark, NJ in a test by IDT... and nearly anywhere there is Wi-Fi coverage, like my favorite coffee shop with free Wi-Fi that's nearly in the shadow of the engulfed and devoured AT&T Wireless corporate campus in Redmond, WA.
Thanks for a stellar year of isen.blog and the return of the SMART Letter after a well-deserved hiatus.
Thanks,
Steve
For us to be able to Skype you, your Skype client needs to be activated once in a while :-)
And, with that shiny new Mac, are you accessible on the Mac's native iChat?
I thought "The US takes a 3G thrashing" was nearly as old and dead as the death of distance. Granted there is greater penetration of wireless phones in other countries, and they're further ahead of us in "3G" deployment. In the mention of Korea and Japan, there's no mention (as usual) of the unique demographics of those countries that in part attribute to the high penetration of wireless phones.
In my analysis, the US is leading a more important wireless trend - License-exempt Wireless, of which Wi-Fi is just the tip of the iceberg. We're starting to see the deployment of do-it-yourself wireless telephony, with the combination of wide-area Wi-Fi and Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) in places like college and corporate campuses, a portion of Newark, NJ in a test by IDT... and nearly anywhere there is Wi-Fi coverage, like my favorite coffee shop with free Wi-Fi that's nearly in the shadow of the engulfed and devoured AT&T Wireless corporate campus in Redmond, WA.
Thanks for a stellar year of isen.blog and the return of the SMART Letter after a well-deserved hiatus.
Thanks,
Steve
As usual you Americans have only the American sense of smell.
If you go not too far,(Mexico for example) distance still smells delightfully for the Telecoms.
Also in Europe and it will still have a wonderful perfume for long.
Do you know why?
Because VoIP is NOT a Mass Market product.
That is for saying that the Mass, (and with it I mean all the Mass and not only the Americans) is not so interested in long distance calls.
I have a lot of friends in Carmagnola.
85% of their calls are in Carmagnola, 14,80% are in Torino or the rest of Italy.
The few remaining have tried Skype but do not use it, because they have nobody in New York or Pasadena or Tokyo to call.
They usually call their friends or their family.
Those are the Mass.
There are also companies who deal internationally and would need VoIP.
But they do not use Skype.
They want to have the same services they have with the actual Telecoms and may be more.
Which is eactly the point.
VoIP, as you said many times, uses a dumb Network and smart end to end devices.
Why not taking advantage of their intelligence and limiting the use of VoIp to a service competitive to the Telecom's just in prices?
I do not think Skype is the future, at least not the immediate future and not the far away future.
And I agree.
Why using an old technology like GSM when it is available something better and cheaper?
And you are terribly wrong when you say minutes are dead.
Minutes are the only business even of VoIP for the moment.
It is the business of the "Terminators" and it is also the business of Skype.
It is the only business of Skype.
Minutes would be dead if VoIp was the business of the big Telecoms.
One spot for a few minutes on TV and the next day millions would look for an IP phone.
But few minutes on TV cost too much for a small Telecom delivering VoIP.
That also may be the reason why VoIP is NOT yet a Mass Market product.
Patrizia from a World on IP
http://www.worldonip.com
http://woip.blogspot.com
If you go not too far,(Mexico for example) distance still smells delightfully for the Telecoms.
Also in Europe and it will still have a wonderful perfume for long.
Do you know why?
Because VoIP is NOT a Mass Market product.
That is for saying that the Mass, (and with it I mean all the Mass and not only the Americans) is not so interested in long distance calls.
I have a lot of friends in Carmagnola.
85% of their calls are in Carmagnola, 14,80% are in Torino or the rest of Italy.
The few remaining have tried Skype but do not use it, because they have nobody in New York or Pasadena or Tokyo to call.
They usually call their friends or their family.
Those are the Mass.
There are also companies who deal internationally and would need VoIP.
But they do not use Skype.
They want to have the same services they have with the actual Telecoms and may be more.
Which is eactly the point.
VoIP, as you said many times, uses a dumb Network and smart end to end devices.
Why not taking advantage of their intelligence and limiting the use of VoIp to a service competitive to the Telecom's just in prices?
I do not think Skype is the future, at least not the immediate future and not the far away future.
And I agree.
Why using an old technology like GSM when it is available something better and cheaper?
And you are terribly wrong when you say minutes are dead.
Minutes are the only business even of VoIP for the moment.
It is the business of the "Terminators" and it is also the business of Skype.
It is the only business of Skype.
Minutes would be dead if VoIp was the business of the big Telecoms.
One spot for a few minutes on TV and the next day millions would look for an IP phone.
But few minutes on TV cost too much for a small Telecom delivering VoIP.
That also may be the reason why VoIP is NOT yet a Mass Market product.
Patrizia from a World on IP
http://www.worldonip.com
http://woip.blogspot.com
David,
In a few minutes on Dec. 26 over 5 million people lost homes, family members, friends and livelihoods.
What can we do in the face of such callous tragedy? A billion here a billion there. It helps. But not that much.
Perhaps after grief begins to loose its terrible grip. After bodily wounds are healed and shattered lives to some pale shade restored. Perhaps in a year or two, we can do our small bit to help with a new beginning?
Start by making the case for massive investment in a ubiquitous Indian Ocean fiber and wireless network. What ever it takes. The best technology has to offer. Free, fair and open to all.
Communication saves lives. Communication builds lives. Communication defines our humanity. We all know the arguments. We rehearse them everyday. But, excuse the pun, talk is cheap. This is far too important to be left to the coiffured suits and vested interests lurking in the darkened corners of the FCC lobby.
Let's move on. Far from the 'paradox' of capitalist economics. Far from the gradgrind, metered minutes of the telco's ticking clocks. We are now in a realm beyond profit. Beyond the barren calculation of the business model.
We need advocates. We need a visionary.
Where do we start?
Mac Taylor
Post a Comment
In a few minutes on Dec. 26 over 5 million people lost homes, family members, friends and livelihoods.
What can we do in the face of such callous tragedy? A billion here a billion there. It helps. But not that much.
Perhaps after grief begins to loose its terrible grip. After bodily wounds are healed and shattered lives to some pale shade restored. Perhaps in a year or two, we can do our small bit to help with a new beginning?
Start by making the case for massive investment in a ubiquitous Indian Ocean fiber and wireless network. What ever it takes. The best technology has to offer. Free, fair and open to all.
Communication saves lives. Communication builds lives. Communication defines our humanity. We all know the arguments. We rehearse them everyday. But, excuse the pun, talk is cheap. This is far too important to be left to the coiffured suits and vested interests lurking in the darkened corners of the FCC lobby.
Let's move on. Far from the 'paradox' of capitalist economics. Far from the gradgrind, metered minutes of the telco's ticking clocks. We are now in a realm beyond profit. Beyond the barren calculation of the business model.
We need advocates. We need a visionary.
Where do we start?
Mac Taylor
# posted by 
: 1/03/2005 9:59 PM
: 1/03/2005 9:59 PM
