Thursday, June 09, 2005
Another side of James Howard Kunstler
I've been reading, The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler, who has provided some vivid and ugly scenarios for civilization's (and especially the United States') readjustment to an age of scarcer fossil fuel. The book is gripping and plausible, but Kunstler has turned off some of the best scientists I know by getting several of his big facts wrong. I'm talking about Ivy League professors of energy and environment doing Nobel Prize quality work; Kunstler's fast-and-loose approach does not play well with this set.
For example (my own example), Kunstler says that Hubbert's Peak occurs when exactly half of the oil is produced. In The Long Emergency he says it at least twice. This is wrong; Hubbert's Peak is a peak in the annual rate of production! There might well be more than half of the oil left when Hubbert's Peak occurs, but it will be produced slower (because it is in smaller fields, because it is locked in oil shale, because it is under the ocean, because there's a war being fought on top of it, etc.).
Vivid scenarios are useful, but it is important to get the facts right.
It is also important to choose your enemies carefully. Kunstler has picked a stupid fight with Amory Lovins. Big mistake. If Lovins and Kunstler step back, they'll see they have the same enemy.
We all have strengths and weaknesses; Kunstler's book, The Long Emergency , and Kunstler's blog, Clusterfuck Nation, are very well worth reading! Kunstler should still be an ally of those who care about the future of the planet and a must-read for those who think about the near future.
For example (my own example), Kunstler says that Hubbert's Peak occurs when exactly half of the oil is produced. In The Long Emergency he says it at least twice. This is wrong; Hubbert's Peak is a peak in the annual rate of production! There might well be more than half of the oil left when Hubbert's Peak occurs, but it will be produced slower (because it is in smaller fields, because it is locked in oil shale, because it is under the ocean, because there's a war being fought on top of it, etc.).
Vivid scenarios are useful, but it is important to get the facts right.
It is also important to choose your enemies carefully. Kunstler has picked a stupid fight with Amory Lovins. Big mistake. If Lovins and Kunstler step back, they'll see they have the same enemy.
We all have strengths and weaknesses; Kunstler's book, The Long Emergency , and Kunstler's blog, Clusterfuck Nation, are very well worth reading! Kunstler should still be an ally of those who care about the future of the planet and a must-read for those who think about the near future.
Technorati Tags: ClimateChange, Energy, Environment, Oil, Science
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