Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Climate Change: The Scientific Evidence
Christopher Lydon's Open Source Radio Show today (podcast available) is on The Politics of Climate Change.
But first, the science (.pdf), from John Holdren, the co-chair of the National Commission on Energy Policy, a Professor of Science, Technology and Public Policy at Harvard's JFK School of Government, and the Director of the Woods Hole Research Center (a few excerpts):
UPDATE: Jamais Cascio writes to point to, "How do we know that CO2 increase comes from human consumption?" Nice piece, Jamais!
But first, the science (.pdf), from John Holdren, the co-chair of the National Commission on Energy Policy, a Professor of Science, Technology and Public Policy at Harvard's JFK School of Government, and the Director of the Woods Hole Research Center (a few excerpts):
2004 was the 4th hottest year in the 140+ years of thermometer recordsand
2003 was 3rd hottest
2002 was 2nd hottest
2001 was 5th hottest
1998 the hottest
Recent studies of glaciers, boreholes, corals all indicate we’re in the warmest period in 1000+ years.and
Newest climate models match observations with much-improved fidelity (in both temporal and spatial patterns of change) when “driven” by known anthropogenic & natural forcings. (The excellent “fit” between observations & predicted consequences of the measured increases in greenhouse gases is a “fingerprint” -- proving beyond reasonable doubt that anthropogenic GHG are the principal culprit behind observed climate change.)and
Parallel efforts in modeling, statistical analysis of observations, and study of past climates have led to strengthened consensus that “sensitivity” to a CO2 doubling is ~3 degrees Centigrade. (The last refuge of “contrarians” (the idea that human disruption, though real, will be small) is vanishing.)and evidence is growing rapidly that increasing greenhouse gases (mostly CO2) is contributing to
• deadly heat-wavesI can't believe that some of my friends, otherwise intelligent people who seemed to get the major impact of the Internet revolution, still think that Global Climate Change is some kind of liberal plot. From corresponding with two of them, I have collected evidence that they probably don't understand the scientific process. I invite such people to read Holdren's presentation (.pdf) carefully, to track the references and try to understand where the assertions come from. I'm sure they're capable, if they will only put their minds to it.
• increased intensity of major storms
• increased frequency & intensity of droughts
• increased frequency of great floods
• impacts on species ranges & behavior
• increased frequency & extent of wildfires
• greater adverse than beneficial impacts on agricultural productivity
UPDATE: Jamais Cascio writes to point to, "How do we know that CO2 increase comes from human consumption?" Nice piece, Jamais!
Technorati Tags: ClimateChange, GlobalWarming, Science
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Just when you think things are going from bad to worse, you discover they are plummeting into a ravine.
From the Guardian today
http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1546824,00.html
A vast expanse of western Sibera is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.
Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.
It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures.
Our leaders will continue to deny this problem as usual, until they are forced to act. Question is, "whatcha gonna do when its already too late?"
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From the Guardian today
http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1546824,00.html
A vast expanse of western Sibera is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.
Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.
It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures.
Our leaders will continue to deny this problem as usual, until they are forced to act. Question is, "whatcha gonna do when its already too late?"
