Friday, November 09, 2007
Peak Oil story hits New York Times
When I read Hubbert's Peak, by Princeton Geology Professor Kenneth Deffeyes, in 2001, the idea that Planet Earth would predictably reach its peak of oil production within the decade was meticulously and scientifically laid out. By scientifically, I mean that Deffeyes made a diligent, approximately exhaustive, effort to seriously consider every scenario with the potential to refute the peak production hypothesis, so that even the skeptical reader that could follow the book's logic had to accept the idea that peak oil might well be near at hand.
It turns out, if no black swan holding a wild card in left field surprises us, Deffeyes even nailed the date of the peak oil pretty closely . . . and he was only half joking.
So now oil is hitting $100 a barrel, and a NYT article like Rising Demand for Oil Provokes New Energy Crisis seems like a dog-bites-boy story. Yawn. Tell me something I *don't* know.
Today I realize that the story is the story. The very fact that this Grey Lady story quotes Shell Board Member Linda Z. Cook saying . . .
It turns out, if no black swan holding a wild card in left field surprises us, Deffeyes even nailed the date of the peak oil pretty closely . . . and he was only half joking.
So now oil is hitting $100 a barrel, and a NYT article like Rising Demand for Oil Provokes New Energy Crisis seems like a dog-bites-boy story. Yawn. Tell me something I *don't* know.
Today I realize that the story is the story. The very fact that this Grey Lady story quotes Shell Board Member Linda Z. Cook saying . . .
"The concern today is over how will the energy sector meet the anticipated growth in demand over the longer term . . . Energy demand is increasing at a rate we’ve not seen before. On the supply side, we’re seeing it is struggling to keep up. That’s the energy challenge."means that Peak Oil is no longer hidden in plain sight. It's out. It is socially acceptable to discuss. It's not the province of geeks and nuts anymore.
Technorati Tags: HubbertsPeak, Oil, Press
Comments:
Yup. And sadly the world is awash in cheap coal. OIl is bad enough for carbon, but coal is nearly twice as bad per unit energy. A growing world economy and population, cheap coal and climate change is clearly the biggest challenge out there ... and tech isn't going to solve it in the appropriate time scale.
I discovered the Peak Oil Meme by way of you, Mr. Isenberg. I am now better prepared than I would have been otherwise. I thank you for that.
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# posted by 
: 12/01/2007 1:49 PM
: 12/01/2007 1:49 PM
