Monday, May 12, 2008


Musings of an Ignorant Economist, continued

In my TUANZ talk in Wellington last week, I guesstimated that NZ could pass almost 100% of homes (ignoring only homes where the density is below 10 per road-mile) with fiber (and offer a triple play package) for $4.2 Billion (plus another $2 B to build 1000x NZ's current interntional connectivity). I just found a 2008 NZ Institute study [.pdf] that proposes to pass 75% of NZ's homes for between $4 and $5 B. I think they could do it in five years, while the NZI study says 10 years. The NZI figure includes upgraded international links, while my "study" had that as an extra -- this trades against the 75% vs "almost 100%".

The NZI study and my guesstimate are remarkably aligned. (Maybe NZI is ignorant too!)

Except for the cost of the study . . . dunno what their 24-viewgraph study cost, but the study has the flavor of McKinsey-mold consultants, so I shudder to think.

Maybe this ignorant economist, AKA Prosultant(sm), is so ignorant of economics as to underprice his services.

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David, you're confusing economics with finance. Don't feel bad -- lots of people make this mistake.
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